STAR WARS – THE FORCE AWAKENS box office prediction:

[old formula = 4,134 theaters x 300 average seats x 6 daily showings x $12 = approx. $90 million a day.]

ADJUSTED : 4,134 theaters x 300 average seats x 6 daily showings x $8 = approx. $59 million a day.

Weekend = Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday = 4 days = $240 million, at an absolute minimum, down from the earlier $360

This also means the film will need just about 30 days to generate $1 billion dollars in domestic box office, not 12 days as earlier estimated.

Adjust this number if you know more accurate numbers (average seats, or accurate number of seats, and average ticket prices – I was just eyeballing those, and averaging daily showings (it’s entirely possible to have an additional 2 daily showings per screen).

[post adjusted with more accurate numbers]

I just want this out here, to see how good my prediction numbers are. ðŸ˜‰

Here we go – we’re getting some initial accurate numbers. Just on Thursday, it made $57 million.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2015/12/18/star-wars-force-awakens-blasts-record-57-million-thursday-night/77554720/

Thus, maybe my guesstimate of $90 million a day was too optimistic. The error lies in my assumed average number for ticket prices.

The average ticket price is actually around $8.

Adjusted the OP with accurate numbers, i.e. Adjusted average ticket price down to $8, from the earlier $12

Actual average ticket price is $7.75

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-record-2-1201665427/

$240 million is still possible – actually, probably closer to $230

So, my adjusted numbers predicted $240 million for the 4 day box office – actual box office numbers that are starting to trickle in: $238 million.

Seems like my old formula still works.

It also means that the average ticket price across the US is a hair under $7.75 (that or there are more average says per screen than 300).

Fascinating that studio excuse still seem not to be able to find their pocket calculators.